Session: 07-04-01 Integrity Threats

Paper Number: 133984

133984 - Quantitative Assessment of Incorrect Operations Threat 

Abstract: 

Incorrect operations have risen to the second highest cause of incidents based on the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) data from 2008 to September 2023 for incidents reported under the Onshore Pipeline Regulations and the Processing Plant Regulations. Despite its considerable impact on the performance of pipeline systems, a comprehensive understanding of what constitutes incorrect operations and the development of a robust risk assessment methodology for this specific issue remain limited.

Incorrect operation is identified as a threat in the American Society of Mechanical Engineering, ASME B31.8S Managing System Integrity of Gas Pipelines, Appendix A-8, which defines it as a time-independent issue involving deviations from proper operating procedures or a failure to adhere to established protocols. The crux of the paper lies in the introduction of an innovative and comprehensive method tailored explicitly to evaluate the diverse failure modes associated with incorrect operations. The methodology advocates a systems-based approach by establishing correlations between failure incidents and an array of contributing factors, spanning system intricacies, job-specific attributes, and individual behavioral facets.

Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) database was leveraged to establish baseline failure frequencies specific to this threat. Additionally, Incorporating data provided by a pipeline operator, the assessment of the incorrect operations threat was adjusted by considering factors such as construction year, temperature, state/province, high-consequence areas (HCA), maintenance, and asset type. The paper details the methodology employed in creating the model, and a preliminary evaluation of the model results is presented. Furthermore, the paper explores opportunities for further refinement of the model, discussing the "ideal" model and the data required for the ideal model to be realized. In doing so, the research aims to enhance our comprehension of incorrect operations within the complex context of pipelines, fostering advancements in risk assessment methodologies for improved pipeline safety and reliability.

Presenting Author: Pushpendra Tomar Dynamic Risk Assessment Systems, Inc.

Presenting Author Biography: Pushpendra Tomar is the Risk and Reliability group manager, a senior leadership role, and a key Dynamic Risk Operations Team member. Pushpendra has over 13 years of experience helping pipeline operators improve and manage their pipeline integrity programs.

Pushpendra joined Dynamic Risk in 2017 after working with Kiefner & Associates. He has led or provided support to a wide array of projects over his career, including ILI performance evaluation, management of ILI and NDE programs for operators, fitness for service assessments, failure investigation, pipe material verification, metallurgical and destructive analysis, reviewing and revising the standard operating procedures of oil and gas pipeline operators, and MAOP verification.

Authors:

Pushpendra Tomar Dynamic Risk Assessment Systems, Inc.
Dawinder Kaur Dynamic Risk Assessment Systems, Inc.
Lorna Harron Dynamic Risk Assessment Systems, Inc.
Millan Sen Enbridge
Samir Fazli Enbridge